On the hourly chart, GBP/USD first declined on Monday, then rose slightly, and then declined again. The decline may continue and is continuing on Tuesday toward the support level of 1.3447–1.3454. A rebound from this zone would favor the pound and some growth toward 1.3489 and 1.3526. Consolidation below the 1.3447–1.3454 level would allow for a further decline toward the next Fibonacci level of 50.0% at 1.3414.

The market situation has nevertheless changed to "bearish." The latest completed upward wave failed to break the previous peak, while the new downward wave broke the previous low. Thus, the bears have now taken control of the initiative. I am not sure that they will be able to launch a full-scale advance, as the FOMC monetary policy tightening scheduled for Wednesday is already being priced in by the market. What will happen after Wednesday?

Reports released in the UK this morning could generally have supported the bulls if traders were currently seeing anything other than a Fed rate hike. Contrary to pessimistic forecasts, the unemployment rate remained at 4.9%, while average earnings came in at 3.9%, as expected. The only negative report was the one on unemployment benefit claims, which showed an increase of almost 28,000, while traders had expected an increase of no more than 8,500. However, the unemployment rate is probably more important than the number of unemployed people. Unfortunately, the market remains focused on the upcoming Bank of England and Fed meetings, with the Bank of England ranked first only because of alphabetical order. I see no market interest in the outcome of the British regulator's meeting. However, I believe that the relentless dollar buying may stop on Wednesday evening, especially if Kevin Warsh does not indicate an intention to continue tightening policy through the end of 2026.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD reversed in favor of the US dollar and declined to the support level of 1.3467–1.3482. Consolidation below the 1.3467–1.3482 level would increase the likelihood of a continued decline toward the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3409. A rebound from the 1.3467–1.3482 level would allow for some growth toward the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.3538. A "bullish" divergence is developing on the CCI indicator, increasing the likelihood of a rebound.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became more "bearish" over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators decreased by 11,866, while the number of Short positions decreased by 2,605. The current gap between the numbers of Long and Short positions is effectively 74,000 versus 132,000. The gap and the bears' advantage are gradually narrowing, but the bears still retain a substantial advantage. Previously, the bears' dominance was unquestionable, but this is now changing because the news background has shifted.

I still do not believe in a "bearish" trend for the pound, but in the near future everything will depend on Trump's trade policy, the monetary policy of the Fed and the Bank of England, as well as the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market has adjusted its expectations toward peace, but negotiations between Iran and the US failed without really getting started. There is no guarantee that they will resume in the near future. The Fed's position on monetary policy remains contradictory.

News Calendar for the US and UK:

• UK – Unemployment rate (06:00 UTC).
• UK – Change in average hourly earnings (06:00 UTC).
• UK – Change in the number of unemployed people (06:00 UTC).
• US – Weekly change in ADP employment (12:15 UTC).

On September 15, the economic calendar contains four entries, three of which have already been released. The impact of the economic background on market sentiment for the rest of the day may be absent.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Sell trades were possible after a rebound from 1.3526 on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3489 and 1.3454. The first target was reached. The trades can be kept open with the second target. Buy trades are possible after a rebound from the 1.3447–1.3454 level, with targets at 1.3526 and 1.3556.

The Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.3557 to 1.3272 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.