Bitcoin and Ether have traded in sideways channels for several weeks after a sharp jump. That does not mean the downtrend that began last year is over. On the daily time frame, Bitcoin remains range-bound between $60,000 and $82,500, while the weekly chart still shows a downtrend. So, despite claims from some analysts, we do not think a new lasting bull trend has begun. Many commentators point to a four?year cycle that would suggest the autumn should mark the end of the correction and the start of a new multi?year bull market. But a four?year cycle is not eternal, and the fact that many so?called experts endlessly predict Bitcoin's rise suggests a faith?based consensus more than a robust structural argument.

CryptoQuant analysts say Bitcoin will struggle to push materially higher in the current environment. They identify the $82,000–83,000 band as key resistance that requires renewed investor participation and materially higher spot demand to overcome. That band contains the CHOCH level—where liquidity could be taken—and the last unfilled bearish FVG, which could trigger a new leg lower within the prevailing downtrend. We therefore agree that clearing $82k–83k will be difficult for Bitcoin.

CryptoQuant also notes that spot demand on exchanges remains weak: outright buying without leverage or derivatives is insufficient to fuel a fresh impulse. Large players continue to accumulate on balance sheets, while retail traders are reducing exposure. The core problem for Bitcoin in 2026 is precisely low spot demand and a flow of capital and mining capacity into the AI sector. Interest in Bitcoin is waning, reflected in a lower willingness by investors to buy the token. For these reasons we still see no structural case for a fresh four?year bull market.

Trading recommendations — BTC/USD

Bitcoin remains in a downtrend despite last week's strong rally. We continue to expect a drop toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the three?year uptrend), although that level has effectively been tested already. We do not believe the downtrend is over. The recent rise looks weak as a corrective move and resembles a pump rather than a healthy retracement—not a convincing signal to open long positions. Liquidity may be taken from the $82,850 high, which could trigger a renewed downward leg and confirm a shift to sideways trading. On the 4?hour chart a fresh drop is possible after a second liquidity grab at the recent highs (a deviation). We think a fall to $75,500 is quite likely this week.

Trading recommendations — ETH/USD

On the daily time frame the technical picture for Ether changed materially in a few days: Ether may be starting a new uptrend. However, traders should use the weekly chart as the reference: Ether could head toward $4,800, the upper boundary of a five?year sideways channel. On the daily chart the nearest bearish FVG has been worked off, but that FVG belongs to the prior trend, and any reaction is likely to be corrective. We also note liquidity taken at the April 17 high and liquidity events on the 4?hour chart; Bitcoin has similarly taken liquidity on the 4?hour. Thus, a correction is likely, and a 4?hour flat has formed for either. Within that flat, internal patterns are of limited value; in the near term, expect a move toward the lower boundary of the flat.

Illustration notes

CHOCH—change of character or a break in trend structure.

Liquidity—stop losses, pending orders, and other liquidity used by market makers to accumulate positions.

FVG— an area of price inefficiency where price moves fast because one side is absent; price later tends to return and react in continuation of the main trend.

IFVG—inverted fair?value gap. On return to such an area, the price does not react but instead breaks impulsively and then retests from the other side.

OB—order block: a candle where a market maker entered to take liquidity and form a position in the opposite direction.