Analysis of Trades and Trading Advice for the Japanese Yen

The price test of 154.94 occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, confirming that the entry point for buying the dollar was correct. As a result, the pair rose by 20 points.

In the second half of the day, the market's attention will turn to the release of ADP employment data and the Empire Manufacturing Index, which is expected to decline sharply to 14.1 points in September from 20.6 in August. If both indicators come in stronger than forecast, the dollar, in my view, will receive additional support ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting.

This scenario is particularly important for the yen, as currency interventions appear to have ceased, leaving the currency without its previous source of support. Strong US data could further widen the already growing yield differential between the dollar and the yen, supporting interest in carry trades and pushing USD/JPY higher on expectations of a more hawkish Fed stance.

At the same time, the policies of the two central banks are moving in the same direction: while the Fed is only preparing for a possible tightening of monetary policy, the Bank of Japan appears determined to act decisively and may raise its interest rate in the coming days. In my view, this prospect is currently limiting more aggressive dollar gains against the yen. Even in the absence of currency intervention, the market is pricing in the risk that the Japanese central bank will narrow the yield gap through its own policy actions rather than by intervening in exchange rates.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the entry point is reached around 154.98 (the green line on the chart), with a target of rising toward 155.37 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 155.37, I will exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level). A rise in the pair today is possible, but the upward potential is rather limited. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 154.73 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 154.98 and 155.37 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the 154.73 level is broken (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 154.29, where I will exit my short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Downward pressure on the pair could return today if the central bank intervenes. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 154.98 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 154.73 and 154.29 can be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart:

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line — the projected price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line — the projected price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold areas into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.