Gold (XAU/USD) is showing moderate intraday gains, gradually moving above the 200-day EMA. As the US dollar has pulled back from its two-week high, this has provided some additional support for the precious metal. However, traders appear to be taking a wait-and-see approach, refraining from opening large directional positions ahead of key events related to central bank decisions.

Today, the September meeting of the US Federal Reserve will conclude, and analysts expect a 25-basis-point interest rate hike. The main focus should be on the Fed's updated economic projections, including the so-called dot plot. Comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the press conference will also be important, as they may provide useful signals about the future direction of monetary policy. These projections will have a significant impact on the short-term dynamics of the US dollar and may trigger a new impulse in gold prices.

Meanwhile, inflation risks associated with rising energy prices are increasing expectations of tighter Fed monetary policy. In particular, on Tuesday, crude oil prices reached their highest levels since May 20 amid growing concerns about supply disruptions from the Middle East. An additional source of tension has been the sharp increase in government and corporate borrowing, which has triggered a sell-off in the global bond market; the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds exceeded 5% for the first time since 2023, reaching its highest level since 2007.

The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is also supporting the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, which may limit gains in gold prices. In response to recent events, Saudi Arabia issued security warnings for several key areas, including the holy city of Mecca and the major city of Jeddah, following attacks by the Iranian-backed Houthi movement in Yemen. The Saudi-led coalition has pledged to respond to these attacks, increasing the risk of further escalation of the conflict. In addition, US Central Command reported that 103 commercial vessels had been rerouted as part of a blockade of Iranian maritime trade through the Strait of Hormuz, supporting oil prices and contributing to a stronger dollar.From a technical perspective, gold is showing some resilience below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and is currently trading slightly above the 200-day EMA. At the same time, the oscillators are mixed, suggesting range-bound trading in the near term.

If the price continues to rise, it may encounter initial resistance at the 9-day EMA, followed by the round-number level of $4,400, which may also act as resistance, and the 20-day SMA near $4,450.

In the event of a decline, the nearest support is at the 50-day SMA. A break below this SMA would open the way to deeper losses.

The table below shows the percentage change in the US dollar's exchange rate against major currencies today. The US dollar recorded its strongest appreciation against the Canadian dollar.