Bitcoin has traded in a sideways channel for three weeks. Remember that Bitcoin often pauses within strong trends and then, even without a correction, produces a new powerful move. Thus Bitcoin's inability at the moment to continue moving upward does not mean the local "north impulse" has ended. However, this impulse is local. On the daily timeframe, it is clear that "digital gold" is essentially within a sideways channel. Currently, Bitcoin is positioned near the upper boundary of that sideways channel. That means a deviation may form with liquidity being taken from the previous high, or at least a simple rejection. In any case, the downtrend remains unbroken, as shown on the daily and weekly timeframes. On the 4-hour timeframe, price has moved down to the lower boundary of the sideways channel. Hence, a bullish deviation near that border, followed by a return to the upper boundary, is possible.

Today the U.S. will announce the Federal Reserve's decision, which markets have essentially already priced in. Traders' belief in a Fed rate hike is off the charts and likely exceeds 100%. We believe that even if the Fed raises the key rate today, its tone will not be "ultra-hawkish." In other words, we do not expect an announcement of a full tightening cycle or Kevin Warsh saying the Fed must reduce inflation at any cost. We expect the Fed chair to take a fairly neutral stance again. That factor could save Bitcoin from a fresh decline. Also note that the U.S. Senate did not approve the CLARITY Act yesterday, so a favorable fundamental backdrop for a new leg up in the top cryptocurrency is lacking. We have repeatedly said that apart from a Treasury decision to ramp up long-term bond purchases, Bitcoin and other crypto assets have no single reason for a sustained uptrend. If the Fed hikes today and the CLARITY Act remains merely a bill, a Bitcoin drop is far more likely than a new rise.

Overall BTC/USD picture on 1D

On the daily TF, Bitcoin continues forming a downtrend and has entered a flat phase. The trend structure is downward, and the CHOCH line sits at $82,800, where the last LH (Lower High) formed. Only above that level can the downtrend be considered complete. For most of 2026, "digital gold" has traded between $60,000 and $82,500, which means price can take liquidity from the last LH and begin a new move toward the lower boundary of the sideways channel.

Overall BTC/USD picture on 4H

On the 4-hour TF, Bitcoin is also in an obvious flat and twice removed sell-side liquidity, which led to a drop toward the lower channel boundary, as we forecast. A deviation may also form near the lower channel boundary, allowing a bounce back to the upper boundary. As long as price remains within the $75,600–81,200 channel, we advise traders to trade only from the channel boundaries. Internal patterns currently do not matter.

Trading recommendations for BTC/USD:

Bitcoin continues forming a downtrend despite the strong mid-August rally. We continue to expect a drop toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the three-year uptrend), although that level has effectively already been worked. We do not believe the downtrend has ended. The recent rise of the top cryptocurrency only weakly resembles a correction, but that is not a sufficient reason to open long positions. Liquidity may be taken from the $82,850 high, which could provoke a new leg down. On the 4-hour TF, long positions may become relevant in the near term if price forms a deviation around the lower boundary of the sideways channel.

Explanations for the illustrations:

CHOCH – change of trend structure.

Liquidity – liquidity, Stop Losses, pending orders that market-makers use to accumulate positions.

FVG – Fair Value Gap. A price area of inefficiency. Price passes through these areas quickly, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Subsequently, price tends to return and react to such areas in continuation of the main trend.

IFVG – Inverted Fair Value Gap. After returning to such an area, price doesn't react; it impulsively breaks it and then tests it from the other side.

OB – Order block. The candle where a market-maker opened a position aiming to take liquidity to form their own position in the opposite direction.